Med students: specialty attractiveness 2010 update

July 24th, 2010 admin No comments

The new doctor compensation numbers for 2010 are out. Time to update the most and least attractive specialties from a compensation standpoint.

(for background on this post, please see the original post on doc comp here.

Some of the more attractive specialties from 2003-09 look less attractive today — Emergency Medicine tops this list. On the flip side, Non-invasive Cardiology and Ortho remain very attractive while Dermatology compensation is rebounding strongly.

As a reminder, here is the old matrix of specialty attractiveness up to 2009:

The main takeaways from this old dataset were as follows:

1) Highly specialized doctors have the most attractive compensation, but also have to deal with the potential for lower IRR’s (because of a longer term in low-earning fellowships, etc.) and greater year-to-year earnings fluctuations.

2) Hospitalist and Emergency Medicine, while less well-paid than specialists, scored highly due to good earnings growth and low volatility in earnings power.

3) Some specialties — chiefly Derm and Anesthesiology — were well-paid but pay was not growing. A potential reflection of either doctor oversupply, lower demand trends, or nurse-specialist substitution, lower earnings growth boded poorly for the future of some specialties.

The new 2010 data brighten the outlook considerably for some specialties, and throw cold water on others. Here are the new data from 2003-10:

There are some significant shifts in the attractiveness of specialties.

Biggest Loser: Emergency Medicine

Anecdotally, EM is a popular field for new doctors that I know due to its shift-based work, daily novelty, and reasonable pay. Longer term, the issues with this specialty from a compensation perspective are troubling. There is no tight control of emergency medicine fellowships, ensuring that doctor supply will grow and possibly push down wages. (Contrast the situation with Dermatology, where even though Derm fellowships are in high demand, the supply of fellowships is tightly controlled). Demand for emergency medicine may also be soft going forward. With the advent of healthcare reform and vertically-integrated, accountable care models, the emergency room will no longer be the profit center it is today, potentially reducing demand for emergency medicine doctors. The last issue is that emergency medicine docs are nearly all hospital-employed, and so will find it hard to make more money outside of working more hours (increasing supply more and lowering hourly wage…). It could be a vicious circle.

These structural trends in emergency medicine may be rearing their ugly heads. 2010 compensation data show that the average compensation for an EM doc fell a whopping 13% in 2010. Med students BEWARE!

Biggest Winner: Dermatology

No need to dwell on this one. Dermatologist supply is tightly controlled by a dearth of fellowships. And the number of procedures that can be performed by dermatologists continues to expand (the latest and greatest appears to be in-office radiation therapy for benign skin cancer). Dermatologist earnings are very high. But in the past few years, earnings growth was slow. Part of this slow growth must have been caused by cuts to Mohs surgery reimbursement and aggressive utilization control by managed care. The result was the surprising ranking of dermatology in the lowest attractiveness tier last year. How things have changed. Derm docs saw an average 13% increase in compensation in 2010, rocketing the specialty from the lowest attractiveness last year to the highest.

Flavor of the Week: Non-invasive Cardiology

It’s unclear whether the definition of ‘non-invasive’ cardiologist includes cardiologists that do diagnostic catheterizations. What is for sure is that non-invasive cardiologists saw an 8% earnings bump this year, pushing average yearly comp up to $418k per year. It’s not hard to speculate on the sources of the large increase — nuclear imaging stress tests for Baby Boomers, movement of cath labs to the outpatient setting, and physician equity ownership of imaging equipment. Is it possible that fewer new docs are entering the field because heart disease is increasingly viewed as ‘conquered.’ I don’t know. But it seems like aspiring new doctors should give non-invasive cardiology a whirl, as compensation trends remain positive.

Take a look through the new table and tell us what you think.

Radiation therapy: excess returns by the fraction

July 8th, 2010 admin No comments

The purpose of 600bn.com is emphatically not to lay the blame for the U.S.’s high per-capita healthcare spend on any one person. The source of the problem is a complex issue. Incentive structures, indirect payment, tax-exemptions, hospitals still run like cottage industries, etc etc. All this said, if one single person had to take all the blame, there’s a clear candidate in the lead: the guy or gal at CMS who set the technical fee reimbursement for IMRT.

IMRT, or Intensity-Modulated Radiation Therapy, is an advanced form of one option for the treatment of solid cancers. Delivered to tumors precisely, IMRT can cure cancer by killing tumor cells while sparing most normal cells. The treatment is non-invasive – radiation waves pass uneventfully through the skin – and indicated as an alternative to surgery for many types of solid tumors including prostate, breast, brain, spine, renal, and others. It’s relatively safe. But there’s a secret side effect that most people outside of the field don’t talk about: IMRT makes doctors fabulously wealthy.

Let’s just focus on the money. An investment in an “average” radiation therapy center (freestanding, i.e., not part of a hospital) yields a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 30-40%, with returns to equity of 80-120% at reasonable leverage ratios and interest rates. That’s really, really good. To put those numbers in perspective, a Walmart development has an ROIC of 15%. Most public companies talk about an ROIC ‘hurdle rate’ of 10-15% on acquisitions. Investors make economic returns by putting money to work at higher ROIC’s than their cost of capital. With a 30-40% ROIC like that offered by radiation therapy centers, an investor could still make gobs of money even at usurious 10% or 15% interest rates. By leveraging the center at a 3-to-1 debt-to-equity ratio (banks will lend at this ratio using the physical assets as collateral), an investor could borrow at 15% and still make a 40-60% return-on-equity in the worst case. How would you like to put $100 in your 401(k) and get $150 back the next year? Radiation oncologists would scoff. They can get back $200.

LINAC ROIC Analysis (download image to see detail)

The profitability of radiation oncology is largely based off of one, single procedure: the magical Medicare IMRT code 77418. Someone at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) set reimbursement for the code far too high when the code was first approved in the early-2000’s. “Far too high” is a normative judgment; it requires some explanation. Let’s run a quick comparison. In 2003, one treatment of IMRT was judged to equal 1/7th the reimbursement of a liver transplant and 1/3rd that of an aortic valve replacement. IMRT was placed on par, reimbursement-wise, with a rib removal or bunion surgery. The beauty of IMRT is that while most people have only a finite number of livers, aortic valves, ribs, and bunions, each cancer patient treated with IMRT typically gets 30-40 treatments. So a course of IMRT cancer therapy costs the system as much as transplanting 5 livers, and removing 40 bunions!

Measured by body parts or by return on investment, the IMRT code seems too high. CMS has recognized their mistake, at least in part, and has cut the code by 23% since 2003. Yet 30-40% ROIC’s for freestanding centers are still very possible with the reduced code.

The message to CMS ought to be: you don’t need to pay so much to incent investment in radiation therapy. If CMS cut the freestanding IMRT code by an additional 50%, return on investment would still be healthy, and the Medicare program would save more than $300m. Cutting the code would have knock-on effects on private payors, which for radiation oncology often base reimbursement off of the Medicare rate. All told, a 50% cut to the IMRT code could save the U.S. healthcare system roughly $1bn while preserving patient access and investor economics. It would bring the U.S. down to European levels of reimbursement for identical services.

Disagree or agree with the logic above, it’s still very unlikely that a cut will happen anytime soon. CMS made a ham-handed and probably unintentional attempt to cut IMRT by ~38% in 2009 as a result of a review of broader imaging codes. Industry lobbying from ASTRO and other trade groups stopped the cuts in their tracks and probably immunized the industry from any major cuts for the next few years.

Beyond these industry-CMS power dynamics, the fact is that our system is not set up to correctly reward investments in different types of care. CMS’s code setting process is formulaic and infrequent, causing the codes themselves to reflect anything but the reality of what healthcare delivery actually costs. Where IMRT is over-reimbursed, primary care is under-reimbursed. We should probably be paying doctors a bit more than $5 for earwax removal, for instance. Over-paying has other negative consequences. Where there’s a money gusher, there is abuse. Companies like Uro-Rad – based in the epicenter of high Medicare spend per capita, McCallen County, Texas – offer urologists cut-and-paste solutions for opening up IMRT practices, helping them to capture this excess return opportunity. High reimbursement and good returns have pushed urologists to eschew cheaper surgery and brachytherapy (which have equally good outcomes) in favor of recommending more IMRT for prostate cancer. Studies disagree vastly on which therapy is better. But it seems clear that younger patients with earlier stage disease are probably better served by methods like surgery, which don’t use radiation and cause secondary tumors years later. CMS’s trip up means more of them get IMRT. The status quo wastes money and may hurt patients.

How to change things? It would be fantastic if CMS drew on data from a broad array of sources when setting codes – including return-on-investment analyses. Utility regulation works by guaranteeing the companies a fixed return on investment. For capital intensive healthcare like radiation oncology, perhaps CMS could look into a similar mechanism. There are public companies in the space with transparent financials that could make a feasibility study of this process simpler than it sounds.

As the radiation industry group ASTRO tried to lobby against CMS’s failed round of 2009 fee cuts, it released a report claiming that 40% of freestanding radiation centers would close their doors in response to the proposed aggregate fee cut of 30%. That seems unbelievable. If CMS were to cut the single IMRT code by 50%, my math shows that average ROIC’s would still be a healthy 18-27% even after what would amount to an effective aggregate cut of about 20% of total revenue. Double my money in 4 years? If any centers really needed to close their doors, it seems likely that there would be a queue of hungry investors lined up to keep them afloat.

Some backup stats and sources:

    Savings from IMRT cuts:

2008 Medicare Charges for 77418 were $494m out of total Rad/Onc allowed charges of $1,381m (codes 77280-77790). Assuming a 50% cut, a 2.5X charge multiplier for commercial managed care, and a 50-50 charge split (probably conservative), that’s roughly $1bn in savings.

    Source for the assumptions in the ROIC analysis:

Revenue ($6.8m/yr for a freestanding center): AMAC estimates, 2009. I wish I could share the presentation, but it is copyrighted.
Cost of equipment and facility ($4m): A LINAC is roughly $2m, and a facility with vault is about $2m according to sources I have spoken with. RTXS, when it still published financials, operated 76 centers with PP&E cost of ~$155m (which far understates true cost because of many non-capitalized expenses, but still that’s an average of only ~$2m per center)
Debt/equity split (75% debt): Public companies in the space (e.g., AIQ) are even more highly levered, but I figure an established practice group will likely have to put in at least 25% equity…
Interest rate (6%): Maybe that’s a bit too low.
Pretax cashflow margin (~18-22%): RTXS, when it still published financials, had higher margins by 400bps b/c they could leverage shared spend. I think 18-22% is a decent estimate. If you assume higher margins like RTXS, then the IRR of an investment is close to 40% (the upper end of the range).

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Med Students: the best (domestic) locations to start your medical career

January 18th, 2010 admin 4 comments

In an earlier post, we looked at which medical specialties are the most financially attractive. In this post we’ll add geography as another factor to consider.

The business of medicine is inextricably entangled with the idea of a ‘local monopoly.’ The most attractively positioned medical facilities and practices have no competitors within easy driving distance. Your average community hospital, for instance, has a local monopoly over the provision of acute and specialty care within a certain radius.

Though prestigious academic medical centers may get all the press, local monopoly community hospitals can often be equally or more profitable. The same holds true for private practices. Being the big fish in a small pond pays.

All of this is to say that when you’re looking at places to settle down and practice medicine, choose your geography wisely. You might make more money being the only gastroenterologist in Jefferson City than being 1 of 100 in the Boston metro area.

To select the most attractive places to practice medicine, we should look state-by-state at the growth in doctors, growth in doctors per capita, and the total doctors per capita. The results are largely as you might expect. With nearly twice the doctors per capita as the national average, Massachusetts scores poorly. Sparsely populated states Idaho, Alaska, and Oklahoma score well. But there are also some unexpected nuggets to be gleaned. Up-and-coming states like Georgia and Arizona score highly. They boast low numbers of doctors per capita and a population that’s growing faster than the supply of doctors. Midwestern states Iowa, Indiana, and Missouri also score highly. Take a look for yourself at the full results, below.

Take these numbers with a grain of salt. The true application of an analysis like this is limited. Entire states may look attractive, but within state boundaries there may be pockets of doctor over- and under-supply. A state’s attractiveness can also be complicated by demographics and payor mix. States that are aging faster will utilize more care per capita, creating a positive demand environment but a potentially less attractive (Medicare-heavy) payor environment. Dynamics in the commercial payor industry can also complicate things. If one or two commercial payors own three-quarters of the market, for instance, then doctors are likely to get less for private-pay patients.

Hopefully this analysis was helpful pointing things in the right direction. Please post any comments below and I will try to answer them.

Overspending on orthopedics

January 17th, 2010 admin 7 comments
The U.S. spends roughly $3 billion more than it should on orthopedic implants.  Orthopedics represents 3% of U.S. overspend on drugs and devices and 0.45% of total overspend.

Introduction

The past twenty years have seen an explosion of innovation by orthopedic companies.  The new generation of metal-on-metal and ceramic-on-ceramic hip and knee implants are in many ways better than what nature gave us to start with.  These new implants not only give mobility back to elderly women with osteoporosis, they let 50-year old distance runners keep running into their 80’s and 90’s.  Coupled with new advances in orthobiologics – putties, pastes, and glues that promote bone healing – innovation in orthopedics has inarguably improved the lives of millions of Americans.
The promise of implants in erasing some of the thorniest issues of old and middle age has led to an outpouring of demand for these new procedures.  From 2000 to 2009, the number of yearly joint replacement surgeries in the U.S. almost doubled, from 575,000 in 2000 to 1.1 million (est.) in 2009.  Look around.  One in 30 Americans are now walking around with at least one new joint.  Ten years ago that number was 1-in-60.
This kind of medical success story doesn’t come without a price.  Ten years ago, Americans spent 54 cents for hip and knee implant surgeries out of every $100 they spent on any kind of healthcare.  Today they spend 78 cents.  Total costs for hip and knee replacement surgery have grown at 10.2% annually since 2000, with about 70% of the growth driven by the amount of procedures, and 30% of the growth driven by the cost of each procedure.
Like most other costs in American healthcare, this rate of growth is unsustainable over the long term.  But hips and knees are hardly an especially notable culprit.  While at the outset it may seem like spending on hips and knees is growing out of control, the truth is more benign.  At 10.2% annually, total growth in spending on hips and knees does outpace overall U.S. healthcare expenditure growth of 8%.  Most of this difference comes from the fact that the number of hip/knee replacements are growing at 7% every year, while the U.S. population is growing at a comparatively anemic 1% and only growing their per capita usage at another 1% a year.  Putting this growth in the amount of procedures aside, then, you’ll see that pricing for hip and knee procedures has grown at 3% annually.  That’s not so bad, all things considered.  Pricing growth (or as healthcare economists would term it, ‘inflation’) is running far below the U.S. average of 5.8%.
Doubtless, our country’s expenditures on hip and knee procedures has been growing unsustainably at 10.2% annually.  But most of this growth is coming from increasing procedure volumes, not out-of-control costs.  Expensive though it is, increasing the number of procedures performed is easier to swallow when you realize these operations are demonstrably helping people live more mobile, active lives free from pain.  It seems wrong to ‘ration’ access to hip and knee implants in any way when it’s clear they do so much good.
All this background is part context and part qualifier.  Neither the orthopedic industry, orthopedic surgeons, nor the patients who get hip and knee implants is really any more to blame for healthcare spending growth than the next group of companies, doctors, or patients you might take a look at.  But things could still be a lot better.
In the next two parts of this article, I will explore where we are missing opportunities to save money, and why.
We’ll start with a look at the orthopedic implant industry, which has managed to keep implant prices sky high despite competitive and commoditization pressures that would have destroyed margins in other, less ‘unique,’ industries.
Next, we’ll explore how hospitals and insurers/payors have failed to push back against high implant prices and unnecessary surgeries.  We’ll also examine surgeons and the role they play.  They are the main source of friction.  Whatever changes need to be made need to be made through them.  And they haven’t been very receptive thus far.


Part 1 of Ortho: orthopedic companies and the role of sales reps

Let’s start the fun with a look at how the cost of hip and knee implants has influenced the overall costs of hip and knee replacement surgery.  Hip and knee implants make up about 41% of the U.S.’s total annual expense on hip and knee surgeries.  That’s $7.1 billion out of a total, projected spend of $17.2 billion in 2009.

This $7.1 billion chunk spent on implants deserves a lot of attention.  It’s the fastest growing of the three major cost buckets.  Implant costs rose at 4% annually from 2005 to 2009, versus annual growth of 3% in hospital costs and annual declines of 2% in payments to orthopedic surgeons.  The 4% annual cost growth is actually a significant moderation from past rates of growth.  Over the wider, 8 year period from 2000 to 2009, implant costs grew 6% annually, 1 point above medical cost inflation.

This $7.1 billion chunk is also the expense that we should theoretically be most able to control.  After all, hip and knee implants are just hunks of metal, plastic, and ceramic.  Competition in the industry, productivity improvements, and manufacturing efficiencies should help lower implant costs over time.  Outwardly, the orthopedic industry seems to be structured in a way that would promote competition.  But under the surface there is a lot going on that keeps prices artificially high.

The first sign that the orthopedic industry is special comes straight off the income statements of the companies that design and manufacture the implants.  Their gross margin on implants sold in the United States hovers around 80%.  In other words, these companies charge U.S. hospitals $5000 for an implant that costs only $1000 to manufacture.  All the other costs that orthopedic implant manufacturers incur to design, market, sell, and service their products shave off another 45% of revenue, leaving before-tax cash profit margins at an extremely attractive 35%.

These margins are the third highest in healthcare – behind only large pharma and biotech companies.  The orthopedic industry’s perch atop these margin rankings has been durable.  Overall industry margins actually increased 3 to 4 percentage points over the last 8 years, cementing their spot near the top of the pack.  Driving this margin increase has been a steady rise in implant prices.  Prices per implant rose by 60% over the last 8 years, even as volumes grew by 65% over the same period.

As consumers we’re used to flat screen TV’s that drop in price as competition and volume increases.  At the very least, if we’re paying the same for a laptop today as we did in 2000, today’s laptop is now 100X more powerful.  These rules don’t hold in ortho.  The five main companies that make up about 90% of the hip and knee market no longer have significantly differentiated products.  They are commodities.  Innovation has stalled.  The same premium metal-on-metal and ceramic-on-ceramic implants have been around for years.

Differences between the implants of today and the implants of 5 years ago are minor.  There are new coatings, new orthobiologics, some new materials – but all in all they are almost indistinguishable.  Yet prices have continued to rise.  Despite competition between five companies, despite a commoditization of the core hip and knee implant product line, and despite an ear-popping near-doubling of procedure volumes, prices are 60% higher today than they were in 2000.

There are a couple reasons why industry observers might argue prices deserve to rise so much.  The first is that hip and knee companies have to pay for R&D and regulatory approvals for their products, and so higher prices are necessary to support these ever-increasing expenses.  They might point out that pharmaceutical industry gross margins are even higher, around 90%.  The seeming logic to this argument is belied by the numbers.  Pharma companies spend about 20% of revenues on R&D.  Hip and knee companies spend 6%.  Every drug that pharma companies develop goes through lengthy development processes and regulatory approvals that cost tens or hundreds of millions of dollars.  Orthopedic companies get virtually all of their products approved through the 510(k) process, a regulatory pathway that takes 6 months and costs an order of magnitude less than drug approvals.  Pharma companies are no saints when it comes to drug prices.  But at least their compounds eventually lose patent protection and go generic, reducing prices to the consumer by 90% or more.  The same paradigm doesn’t exist for orthopedic companies.  They spend much less on R&D and regulatory processes, and they don’t face significant patent cliffs like pharma.  Rising prices in ortho go straight to the industry’s bottom line, in near perpetuity.

The second reason why prices might deserve to rise is that ortho companies must service their products.  During many implant surgeries – routine and otherwise – a sales rep from the ortho company is in the operating room with the surgeon to assist with product selection and usage.  Usually this help takes the form of simply giving the surgeon the right sized screw when asked.  In rare cases the rep might virtually perform the surgery, using a laser pointer over an inexperienced surgeon’s shoulder to position incisions and implant placement.  In the former case, there’s little value; while in the latter case salespeople can make a difference in patient health.  In both cases, these services come with major pricetags.  Keeping sales reps on call to do surgeries in the hospital is expensive.  The average orthopedic company spends about $37 for every $100 they make on sales and marketing – by far their single biggest expense.  They spend it for a reason.  Sales reps are the most important differentiator amongst companies with commoditized products.  The right sales rep is always 30 minutes early to pre-surgery planning sessions, has products available at a moment’s notice, and sends copious amounts of holiday cards.  In the past, sales reps also funneled financial incentives to surgeons in exchange for the surgeons using their company’s product.  While direct financial incentives are now a thing of the past thanks to a Department of Justice investigation, the relationships that sales reps nurture between themselves and orthopedic surgeons are nonetheless strong and long-lasting.

Reliant on sales reps to maintain and grow market share, the orthopedic industry as it is structured currently is not a very leverageable business model.  In plain terms, to sell more implants, you need to hire more sales reps.  And to incent sales reps properly, you need to pay them a lot, sometimes even more than the orthopedic surgeons are paid themselves.  So implant prices need to rise each year to support this chunk of sales rep salary and benefits expense that also needs to rise annually.

Spending on sales reps creates a virtuous cycle for the orthopedic implant companies. The relationships that sales reps form with orthopedic surgeons tend to make market share sticky, preventing hospitals from negotiating implant pricing effectively to save costs.  More sales reps support higher prices.  And higher prices support more sales reps.

Reps keep pricing high by monopolizing the loyalties of the surgeons they cover.  The rule in the past has been that hospitals tiptoe very carefully around negotiating prices for ‘physician-preference items’ like orthopedic implants.  When hospitals try to negotiate implant prices by threatening to switch to another implant manufacturer, surgeons tend to revolt.  For hospitals, it’s a cost savings.  For surgeons, switching manufacturers means switching reps and having to train on new implants, equipment, and procedures.  Hospitals generally can’t afford to lose top orthopedic surgeons.  At 5-15% overall margins, depending on payor mix, ortho departments can be one of the more profitable areas of a hospital.  Profit here helps pay for other services and charity care that hospitals don’t make any margin on.  This delicate balance between over-compensated sales reps, status quo-favoring surgeons, and hospitals reluctant to negotiate works to dampen competition.  With little threat of other companies stealing their business, incumbent orthopedic implant manufacturers in each hospital are free to raise prices every year.

What have consumers of healthcare gotten in exchange for these increasing costs?  A higher annual pricetag for the same hunk of metal.

Part 2 of Ortho: hospitals, payors, surgeons

To defeat this cycle of ever-rising implant prices, there are short- and long-term changes that need to happen.  We’ll never be able to get U.S. implant pricing down to European levels (about 60% what we pay), because our payor and hospital systems are too fragmented.  But with a series of steps, the U.S. healthcare system can stoke competition in the industry to keep costs where they should be.

In the short-term, hospitals need to use new tools to push back against rising implant prices and invite competitive bidding.  We’re already seeing the first stages of a revolt.  Some hospitals are now using implant pricing consultants and in-house financial analysts to set a fair maximum price per implant.  They invite implant companies to ‘pay to play,’ without trying to consolidate manufacturers and limit surgeon choice.  ‘Capitated’ pricing agreements can lower hospital costs for implants by up to 15%, and they can prevent yearly price increases by holding the capitated price flat for long periods.

Hospitals that have succeeded in imposing capitated pricing have only succeeded because their surgeons were on board with the price control efforts.  Sometimes it’s surgeon outrage that does the trick.  Telling your surgeons that the sales reps looking over their shoulders make 2X a surgeon’s take-home can be potent, but it’s an awkward conversation.  Some other hospitals have attempted gains-sharing plans.  And still others have purposely recruited surgeons who are more team players than lone rangers.

The pivotal role that surgeons play in the orthopedic implant cost equation means that they must be the ultimate target of cost-control efforts.  Getting surgeons to leave sales reps at the operating room door would be a good first step.  By taking the sales rep out of the equation, implant companies would have more leverage-able businesses models and could absorb pricing competition.  Sales reps would also have less sway over surgeons, improving the ability of hospitals to negotiate on price with implant companies.  But kicking reps out of the OR is easier said than done.  Some surgeons rely on them for help with procedures.  And sales reps often make the life of a surgeon much easier by helping to manage hospital inventory and keeping the surgeon trained on and informed of the latest advances in the field.

The mechanics of breaking the surgeon-sales rep relationship are complex.  The 2007 Department of Justice settlement took away the hard financial ties of surgeons to their reps.  But the soft ties between surgeon and rep still remain, because the reps do provide real value to surgeons.  It’s just that the value provided does not match the value that the reps are able to extract from our healthcare system.  The majority are glorified vending machines.  Yet they persist.  Currently, most implant manufacturers are investing even more in their salesforces.

In an ideal world, surgeons would take care of their own training and be familiar enough with their equipment to operate without help from sales reps. Hospitals would diligently manage inventory to make sure that the right implant is available when needed.  And both would work together to provide the best patient care possible while not letting implant companies walk all over them on pricing.

In the real world, surgeons are busy.  They don’t want to burn billable hours planning negotiations and retraining on new kit.  Many hospitals don’t have enough expertise to manage complex sets of instruments and supplies.  And the two camps can be mortal enemies when it comes to medical costs.

Change in surgeon behavior, then, probably has to start with payors.  At the end of the day, someone has to decide that ‘enough is enough’ – we won’t continue to pay more every year for orthopedic procedures unless we get vast improvements in patient care in return.  Both Medicare and private payors appear like they might finally smell the proverbial blood in the water.  Recent proposed payment increases for orthopedic procedure codes are one-half to one-fifth of past increases.  Lack of product innovation by the orthopedic implant companies and unsustainable growth in costs appear to have convinced payors that they no longer can afford to support this area of medicine to the same degree as in the past.  One area that payors have quixotically not yet explored is the separation of the Ortho surgery payment into an implant piece and a service piece.  Isolating the cost of the implant would allow payors to focus on it specifically.  Logically, it makes sense.  But feedback from payors generally boils down to: “it’s not worth the trouble.”

However it’s done, this reining in of payment growth can undercut the profitability of orthopedic procedures, also undercutting the clout that orthopedic surgeons carry.  Slower payment growth for orthopedic procedures should help control costs by changing the balance of power within the hospital.  But it won’t be without pain for hospitals, doctors, and patients.  While the payors’ ultimate goal is to win back the 50% we over-spend on orthopedic implants from the manufacturers themselves, they have to work through the hospitals to do so.  Hospitals are the ‘human shields’ between the orthopedic industry’s guerilla pricing tactics and the payors’ offensive countermeasures.  Unfortunately for hospitals, payors can’t help causing collateral damage.

To maximize the pain that the implant manufacturers feel and minimize the pain in the rest of the system, we need changed attitudes from our doctors.  Orthopedic surgeons need to partner with hospitals to drive down implant prices.  A stark choice faces surgeons.  They can partner with hospitals now.  Or they can keep humoring their sales reps and leave payors no choice but to bring the hammer down.  Radiologists had a similar choice between unsustainable cost growth and changing their habits in the late 90’s and early 2000’s.  They chose the status quo, and payors ripped them to shreds a few short years later.


Endgame

The orthopedic industry shows that it is theoretically possible to provide the same level of patient care with much lower costs just through changes in doctor behavior.  If surgeons can be convinced to ditch their reps and to act slightly more cost-consciously, then the entire bloated structure of the orthopedic industry would collapse overnight.  Prices would fall as volumes rise, just like in all other industries.  Companies would spend more on real innovations in care instead of seeking competitive advantage through their salesforces.  Applied to other areas of healthcare, and changes in doctor behavior like these might enable us to defeat the relentless 9% annual rise in medical costs per capita that has plagued the U.S. since the 1970’s.

The difficulty with this accounting of what has happened in the orthopedic industry is just how much blame gets placed at the feet of orthopedic surgeons.  They are the patsies in this story, played by orthopedic companies who unsympathetically but unsurprisingly are looking to maximize their profits.  Yet the blame is justified because these surgeons are the stewards of our medical care.  The buck stops with them.  Maximizing the quality of care provided to the U.S. population means ensuring that its cost is sustainable, else its cost will increasingly ration care away from people who need it.  Asking surgeons to take this broader view of their mission, kick out their sales reps, and cooperate with their hospitals hardly seems unreasonable.  It’s neither decorum nor a smart career decision to bankrupt the people paying the bills.

Sources are here

Med students: Attractiveness of different specialities

January 17th, 2010 admin 1 comment

You want to be a doctor.  You prepare tirelessly for the MCAT, your anatomy exam, the Step 1’s, and your patient presentations.  You talk to established doctors from different parts of medicine, melding your preferences with their experiences to decide on a short list of specialties.  And you lovingly format your essays and resume for residency placement interviews.  Yet when it comes to the business of being a doctor – the payoff for all this hard work – you feel like you’re putting in your first Foley again.

In my experience, this description typifies the average med student in the U.S.

I’m not a med student myself, but many of them are my friends.  I find it heart-warming but also slightly horrifying that many of them have not sat down to apply hard financial facts to their choice of specialties and even to their choice to pursue medicine at all.  Most med students believe their investment to be a good one; and it certainly is.  But there is a systematic lack of understanding of how specialty choice influences both raw earnings power and the overall financial attractiveness of one’s future career as a doctor.

This post represents an effort at change.  I’ll present some facts about the bling behind different specialties, and you can draw your own conclusions.

First – is becoming a doctor a good investment?  In the financial world, one tool used to estimate the return on an investment is the Internal Rate of Return (IRR).  Imagine someone came to you and offered the following investment: pay for a med student to go to med school, and, in return, receive all the cash he/she makes for the rest of his/her career as a doctor.  What sort of rate of return on your initial investment would you demand?  One clue comes from the world of private equity and venture capital investment.  As a rule of thumb, illiquid, long-term investments – like, say, a med school education –  require an IRR of greater than 20% to justify the risk.  By my calculations, the average medical school education yields a 19.4% IRR, around the right level.  You can read about the assumptions at the bottom of the post.  So rest assured that choosing to be a doctor is at least not an embarrassing investment compared to other ways you could invest your money.

Second – what specialties have the most attractive returns on investment?  In a word, radiologists.  But hang on because there’s more to a specialty than just return on investment.  To explore just the pure return-on-investment question, I had to make a number of estimates, including: earnings power, earnings growth, delta between new and established doctor earnings, time spent in internships/residency/fellowships, and time spent practicing medicine.  The sources for these assumptions are listed at the end of the post.  Putting these assumptions together yields the table below, which ranks specialties by their IRR’s.  Unsurprisingly, these IRR’s seem generally in line with doctor pay.  Higher-paid specialties like orthopods, gastroenterologists, and radiologists have better IRR’s, despite their longer fellowship periods.  This conclusion is too simple to be of any use.  I think that merely looking at earnings power is missing the boat.  We need to look at many other factors to determine the overall attractiveness of each specialty.

Third – what is the overall financial attractiveness of each specialty?  Doctor pay, just like wages for other jobs, follow the laws of supply and demand.  When the number of docs practicing one specialty expands out-of-sync with patient demand for that specialty, each doc will eventually get paid less.  The proof I’ve found thus far is abundant, though anecdotal.  Years ago, no one wanted to practice anesthesiology, and so now they are one of the best compensated specialties.  Interventional radiologists are stealing work from cardio-thoracic surgeons, lowering the latter’s earnings power.  The most selective specialties (read: the ones which limit supply the best) generally get paid the most.

This complication of supply and demand requires that we consider more than just raw earnings power to determine the financial attractiveness of each specialty.  We must also consider earnings growth and earnings volatility to attempt to quantify the sustainability of each specialty’s money-making ability.  The example of the cardio-thoracic surgeon is instructive here.  Ten years ago this specialty was probably at the top of every ambitious med student’s list given the financial reward involved.  Now there are 5 surgeons chasing after each open-heart surgery.  Cardio-thoracic surgeons lacked earnings sustainability.

Many factors influence earnings sustainability are qualitative.  I won’t even try to understand every competitive nuance.  Instead, I’ve chosen to approximate earnings sustainability by looking at the last 6 years of growth in each specialty’s earnings power.  If growth is strong, then presumably the supply/demand equation is healthy.  I am also looking at the volatility of doctor earnings – a metric that will inform us about whether there can be quick, sudden changes in earnings power.  High earnings volatility implies higher risk, which is something that we don’t really want at the end of the day.

Taking all of these factors into account yields this table, below.  I ranked each specialty through a homemade score that takes into account earnings power, volatility, and, crucially, past earnings growth.  The analysis brings out some surprising conclusions.  Dermatology appears to have poor earnings sustainability, with earnings growth in dead last.  It’s tempting to blame derm’s poor performance on the large amount of med students who have presumably streamed into the specialty given its attractive financial profile and good lifestyle.  The data obviously aren’t conclusive, but it’s an interesting potential illustration of the rule of supply and demand.

Also surprising is the emergence of hospitalist as one of the more attractive specialties.  Though the pay ain’t great, earnings growth that tops that of all other specialties shows that hospitalists are in high demand.  Their earnings volatility is also exceptionally low, meaning you’ll never get stuck with a ‘jam of the month club’ membership in place of a Christmas bonus.

Comparison of the financial attractiveness of different medical specialities:

So there we have it, a concise though hardly definitive effort to try to quantify the overall financial attractiveness of each specialty in medicine.  Take it with a grain of salt, please.  But I hope its useful in that it puts at least some basic facts behind important financial questions that med students don’t usually address before making the plunge.

Please post any questions as comments and I will try to answer them.

Read below for details on the sourcing of the data:

Average yearly earnings numbers come from the yearly Modern Healthcare meta-analyses of all doc earnings surveys.  Their meta-analyses go back further than 2003, but I was unable to find any older versions that were available online.

Links are here:

2003

2004

2005

2006 (growth numbers abstracted)

2007

2008

2009

Med school is assumed to cost $50k per year

Intern salary is assumed to be $40k

Residency salary is assumed to be $45k

Fellowship salary is assumed to be $80k

I assume doctors take 15 years to grow from year-one to median doc earnings power

I assume doctors enter med school at 25 years old and retire at 65 years old (ah, if only, I know…)

I use the 2008 AMGA/Cejka survey to quantify the delta between new doctor and median doctor salaries, broken down by sub-specialty: link

I use AMA and WashU sources to approximate the required years of residency, internship, and fellowship for each specialty.